The US Senate Race, 3 Days Out

Red indicates likely republican, green indicates toss up, blue indicates likely democrat
Iowa: Republican Joni Ernst retains a slim lead over democrat Bruce Braley, but most of the recent polling has been within the margin of error. Real Clear Politics has the average of polls with her up 1.6 percent. I give Joni Ernst a 70% chance of winning.
Arkansas: Republican Tom Cotton has almost certainly wrapped up this campaign. The Real Clear Politics average of polls has Cotton up by 7 points, and it’s more than likely that Democratic Incumbent Mark Pryor won’t be heading to washington next January. I give cotton a 95% chance of winning.
Colorado: Republican Cory Gardner has probably run the best republican senate campaign in history. There’s no way that he should be competitive in Colorado, but he’s actually leading democratic incumbent Mark Udall by an average of 3.6 points, and leading the democrat in early votes, a good sign of things to come for Gardner. I’ll give him a 65% chance of winning.
Alaska: Alaska is the only state that I’m reluctant to put in the GOP column, simply because polling in Alaska is so notoriously unpredictable. But if the polls are any indication, it looks like Republican Dan Sullivan will win. I’d give him a 75% chance of winning.
Georgia: Georgia should be an easy win for the republicans, but in all honesty, David Perdue should not have been our nominee. He was one of the weakest candidates in the primary, and was unfit to take on Democrat Michelle Nunn. But I’m still going to give him a 65% chance of winning next tuesday.
Kentucky: This spring, it looked like this would be a much closer race than it turned out to be, but democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes shot herself in the foot by embracing folks like Hillary Clinton and Elizabeth Warren. McConnell has been quick to point out that, “there’s not a dimes worth of difference between an Obama Democrat and a Clinton Democrat.” I give McConnell a 95% chance of winning.
In the following races, republicans have an 98% or higher chance of winning: Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma Special, Nebraska, Wyoming, Idaho, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, South Carolina Special, Maine, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia.
Kansas: Three months ago, it seemed like Pat Roberts would be dismally re-elected in a three way race. But then democrat Chad Taylor withdrew his name from the ballot, which immediately bolstered “Independent” Greg Orman to a ten point lead. After lots of help from the National Republican party and endless surrogates from around the country, Roberts has come back into the running. The RCP average has Orman up by less than one point, which means that this is a tossup in the truest sense. Right now I’d give Roberts 50%-Orman-50% chance of coming out on top.
Louisiana: Louisiana may not be a true toss up, but there will almost definitely be a runoff on December 6th. On the First round of voting, I’ll give Democrat Landrieu 43%, Republican Cassidy 37%, and Republican Maness 9%, with the remaining vote divied up between 9 other candidates. On the Second Ballot, I’d give Cassidy an 80% chance of winning.
North Carolina: Democratic Incumbent Kay Hagan has held on to a small lead over Republican Thom Tillis. Tillis has brought along some baggage from an unpopular state legislature, which has hurt him in the general election. He’s still within striking distance, but Hagan has about a 65% chance of winning.
New Hampshire: Republican Scott Brown has moved to within striking distance in recent days, but Jeanne Shaheen has held a small lead in most polls. Shaheen has a 60% Chance of winning.
Michigan: for a while, it looked like republican Terri Lynn Land could beat democrat Gary Peters, but that fire fizzled out after September, and the RealClearPolitics average of polls has Peters up by 12.5 percent. I give Peters a 95% chance of winning.
Virginia: Ed Gillespie is still very much the underdog in his bid against incumbent democrat Mark Warner, but has lowered Warner’s lead to the low single digits over October. I still would give Warner a 85% chance of winning his bid.
The following states are safe for the democrats: Oregon, Hawaii, Illinois, New Mexico, Delaware,  New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. 

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