Competitive Race Analysis:
Arkansas: Democrat incumbent Mark Pryor seems like he will soon be known as Former Senator Pryor. His approval in the deeply red Arkansas continues to fall, and republican Top Cotton leads him in poll after poll. I’m putting Cotton at 51-52% to Pryor’s 48-49%.
Louisiana: Numerous scandals have plagued incumbent democrat Mary Landrieu, as she faces republicans Bill Cassidy, Rob Maness, and Thomas Clemens, as well as four fellow democrats and a libertarian. I project that on the first ballot, Landrieu will pull 40-43% of the vote, and in the runoff between 45-47%. Cassidy will likely be the republican to advance into the runoff, and come in at between 53-55% of the vote.
Iowa: Joni Ernst and Bruce Braley have been in a mud-slinging fest, but two recent polls have put Ernst ahead by between 2 and 6 points. My projection is Joni Ernst at 49% and Braley at 47%, and 2% split between 4 independents.
North Carolina: North Carolina should be an easy win for republicans, but unfortunately it’s not. We went wrong by nominating Thom Tillis. He has far to much to baggage from Raleigh to win in the General Election. I’m projecting democrat Kay Hagan to come in at 49% to Thom Tillis’ 47%, with libertarian Sean Hughs taking 2%.
Kansas: Pat Roberts took a massive blow with Chad Taylor dropping out. Fortunatelly, Greg Orman’s ratings are falling slowly, and with Republican heavy hitters like Paul Ryan, Rand Paul, Bob Dole, John McCain and Sarah Palin already barnstorming the state, his ratings will soon hit rock bottom. I project Pat Roberts with 46-47%, Greg Orman at 45-46%, and the remaining votes shared by various other candidates.
Colorado: In what should be a knockout for democrat Mark Udall, congressman Cory Gardner has picked up steam, and even led recent polls. Currently I project the vote to fall 49-50% Udall, 48-50% for Gardner.
Alaska: Any political observer knows that Alaska is very unreliable to poll, and the outcome will all depend on turnout. Currently, I see Democrat Mark Begich with between 47-53%, and Republican Mark Sullivan at between 46-52%.