The media is still buzzing about Hillary Clinton, calling her a shoe in for this next election. I find that hard to believe. It’s not a matter of her strengths and weaknesses, and it’s not a matter of who the republicans will run. It’s a matter of History, Statistics, and Human Nature.
The same political party almost never keeps the presidency 3 elections in a row. Ronald Reagan was immensely popular still in 1988, and H.W. Bush should have had an easy time winning, possibly by 10-15 points. He won, but not by as much as he “should” have. In 2000, the economy was going strong, the world was relatively quiet, and Al Gore should have won by 10-15%. But people were suffering from “Clinton Fatigue”, and like it or not, George Walker Bush became the 43rd president of these United States. In 2008, George W. was very unpopular, the world was in a volatile situation, and the Democrats had regained both houses of congress. Come 2016, it looks like the same scenarios will be repeating themselves. Look no further than Obama’s swamped approval, the situation in Ukraine, Israel and the border, and the fact that Washington Post just gave the Republicans a 86% chance of regaining the Senate, and 100% chance of keeping the House. Looks like a “reverse-repeat” of ’08.